UFC 318 Betting Preview: 5 Fights, 5 Picks, and a Couple of Sneaky Value Shots

UFC 318 Poirier vs Holloway

It’s UFC 318, and the main card is packed with familiar faces, former champs, and a few lines that smell like traps for the casuals. Whether you're here for a cheeky wager or trying to impress your buddies at the BBQ, I’ve got you covered.

Let’s dig into each main card fight — winners, how they’ll win, and where the smart money might actually be hiding.

🥊 Daniel Zellhuber vs. Michael Johnson

📈 Odds: Zellhuber -600 | Johnson +450

📘 Method Angle: Zellhuber by Decision (+150)

Michael Johnson is still out here scrapping at 38 — and still losing close decisions he maybe should’ve won. Zellhuber’s younger, longer, and just plain cleaner. But he’s not a finisher, and Johnson’s only been stopped once in his last 7 losses. The books expect a blowout, but it’s more likely we get three rounds of smart striking and scorecards.

🧠 Prediction: Zellhuber by Decision

💸 +EV Pick: Zellhuber by Decision (+150) — better than laying -600 or using him in a chalky parlay.

🥊 Dan Ige vs. Patricio “Pitbull” Freire

📈 Odds: Ige -225 | Pitbull +187

📘 Method Angle: Ige by Decision (+100)

Pitbull is one of the most decorated non-UFC fighters ever, but this feels like a tough test. He’s 37, undersized, and hasn’t fought in a year. Ige’s durability, wrestling defense, and cardio are tailor-made to frustrate Freire. He probably won’t finish him — but he will outwork him.

🧠 Prediction: Ige by Decision

💸 +EV Pick: Ige by Decision (+100) — even money for the most likely outcome? That’s just smart money.

🥊 Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez

📈 Odds: Holland -600 | Rodriguez +450

📘 Method Angle: Holland by Submission (+400)

Their first fight ended fast, with Holland tapping Rodriguez in under three minutes. D-Rod’s a solid boxer, but his ground game is exploitable — and Holland’s length makes him a nightmare on the mat. At -600, there’s zero value in the moneyline. But if you believe lightning can strike twice…

🧠 Prediction: Holland by Submission

💸 +EV Pick: Holland by Submission (+400) — big payoff if he grabs the neck again.

🥊 Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov

📈 Odds: Costa -225 | Kopylov +187

📘 Method Angle: Kopylov by KO (+325)

This is the live dog of the card. Costa hasn’t fought in a year, and when he does, it’s always chaos. Kopylov is calm, surgical, and has serious pop — four of his last five wins are KOs. If Costa comes in sloppy or gasses (again), Roman’s counter-striking could put him out.

🧠 Prediction: Kopylov by KO

💸 +EV Pick: Kopylov ML (+187) and Kopylov by KO (+325) — both are real value plays.

🥊 Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier (Main Event)

📈 Odds: Poirier -138 | Holloway +110

📘 Method Angle: Holloway by Decision (+200)

They’ve danced before, but this time the vibe is different. Holloway is peaking again — sharper, more composed, and not cutting to featherweight. Poirier has power, but he’s been in too many wars lately. Over five rounds, Holloway’s cardio and volume are nightmare fuel. And unless Poirier lands something nuclear early, Max probably pieces him up down the stretch.

🧠 Prediction: Holloway by Decision

💸 +EV Pick: Holloway ML (+110) and Holloway by Decision (+200) — both offer real upside.

💡 Final Thoughts

If you’re stacking heavy favorites just to feel something, you’re doing it wrong. Betting UFC isn’t about picking winners — it’s about knowing where the value lives. This card gives us that:

Holloway is the better fighter right now — and you’re getting plus money.

Kopylov has a real shot to sleep Costa, and the books are slow to adjust.

Ige by decision is the cleanest chalk-to-value line of the night.

Watch the fights. Sweat the picks. And if you're ready to stop gambling and start betting smarter, check this out.