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UFC 317 Betting Preview

  • Writer: HeyRookie
    HeyRookie
  • Jun 28
  • 3 min read

Updated: Jul 12


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T-Mobile Arena - Las Vegas

10pm EST, 7pm PST


🥇 Main Event UFC 317: Ilia Topuria (‑420) vs. Charles Oliveira (+325)

Pick: Pass or Topuria ML if you got him early

Confidence: 4.5/5 (on Topuria winning — not betting)

Market Movement: Opened around –295, now between –420 and –450

Implied Probability: ~81% at current price

Estimated True Win Probability: 75–78%


Breakdown: UFC 317: Topuria’s elite striking, sharp footwork, and pressure-heavy game make him a nightmare matchup for Charles Oliveira, who has struggled under similar pressure in recent losses. Topuria lands 3.9 significant strikes per minute and absorbs just 2.5, with a solid 66% takedown defense. On paper, this looks like Topuria’s fight to win — and likely inside the distance. But with the odds already steamed beyond –400, there’s no value left. If you grabbed him earlier in the week under –350, you beat the market. If not, it’s a pass.


🥊 Co-Main: Alexandre Pantoja (–235) vs. Kai Kara-France (+195)

Pick: Pantoja ML

Confidence: 4.0/5

Market Movement: Opened around –210, sitting in the –225 to –240 range

Implied Probability: ~70%

Estimated True Win Probability: 73–75%


Breakdown: Pantoja is simply more well-rounded. He holds the grappling advantage, better fight IQ, and the experience edge. Kara-France offers power, but he’s fairly one-dimensional, and his takedown defense (63%) is exploitable here. Pantoja should dictate where the fight takes place and win with pressure and control. At –235, this is still a fair price for a fighter with proven top-tier results. There’s mild value here, especially if you can still catch him under –230.


🥋 Beneil Dariush (–110) vs. Renato Moicano (–110)

Pick: Dariush ML

Confidence: 3.0/5

Market Movement: Opened even, slight lean toward Dariush as betting week progressed

Implied Probability: 50%

Estimated True Win Probability: 54–56%


Breakdown: Dariush is the more battle-tested fighter with superior wrestling and ground control. Moicano is slick, especially on the mat, but he absorbs nearly five significant strikes per minute and has faded against elite pressure. This fight likely becomes a cardio and control test — and Dariush has more tools. With the line sitting at pick’em, there’s slight value on the vet with better résumés and control metrics.


🪖 Brandon Royval (+105) vs. Joshua Van (–125)

Pick: Royval ML

Confidence: 2.5/5

Market Movement: Opened Royval –120, flipped to Van –125

Implied Probability (Royval): ~48%

Estimated True Win Probability: 51–53%


Breakdown: Van is a talented up-and-comer, but this is a big leap in competition. Royval thrives in unorthodox chaos, has wild transitions, and puts insane pressure on his opponents. He averages 1.2 submission attempts per 15 minutes and has a cardio pace that’s tough to prep for. The public steam is on Van, but that’s likely based more on hype than data. Royval at plus money is a buy.


🧠 Felipe Lima (–180) vs. Payton Talbott (+155)

Pick: Talbott ML

Confidence: 2.0/5

Market Movement: Opened Lima –150, now out to –180

Implied Probability (Talbott): ~39%

Estimated True Win Probability: 43–45%


Breakdown: Talbott’s still developing, but he’s long, athletic, and has sneaky power. He also mixes in wrestling when needed and fights with confidence. Lima is more polished and consistent, but not particularly dangerous. The line movement has been aggressive toward Lima, which creates value on the other side. Talbott’s a worthy underdog stab in a matchup that may be closer than the market suggests.


🔚 Final Word — Value Recap:

  • Topuria is a pass at current odds (–420); no value left, though he likely wins.


  • Pantoja is the most trustworthy favorite with mild value — worth betting now.


  • Dariush is the sharp play in a coin-flip fight — better path to win than odds suggest.


  • Royval is your best value underdog — experience and chaos in his favor.


  • Talbott is a speculative dog shot — line has moved against him, but he’s very live.


Bet early. Bet smart. And if you’re chasing positive expected value, you’ve now got five spots to dig into before the lines sharpen up.



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